Strength in EUR / AUD

Watching EUR / AUD in the past 24 hours I notice a double bottom low higher close (dblhc) on the daily chart. Whilst I am not a trader that looks at fundamental analysis I have noticed over the last couple of days since AUD / USD has rallied and AUD has weakened against the EURO. This is even more mysterious considering the AUD is almost at an all time high against the USD.

I cant see the AUD going much high than 0.97 USD until it is almost certain domestic interest rates will rise (which they will do), however in the interim I think it will trade in a consolidation range. In the mean time I would expect from a fundemental and technical standing point that EURO / AUD will rise.

I entered long at $1.6332 currently at $1.6435 I think I will ride this one out , even though I am at my targeted 1 : 2.5 Risk to return ratio .

First Pyramid Entry + Succesful Trade of 144 pips

Looking at the hourly chart a double bottom candle formed (although this wasn’t accompanied by a higher close when I entered). After noticing on the daily chart that price has been trending in a channel for the past month or so I decided this was a high probability trade.

After entering I waiting for a fib retracement from the swing high to enter my second position (pyramind my trade). In hindsight I should have waited for this fib level to be tested more than once (as it dipped slightly lower from where my 2nd entry was), however my analysis was 75% right and was able to net 144 pips in total (including pyramid entry that was the same value as my original trade).

Missed Trade + Trading Thoughts

I have been reflecting over my trading style and I think I need to pay more attention to the daily chart and not the hourly and 15 minutes and instead of going in and out for quick positions that last a couple of hours, I need to start riding out my trades for longer positions that last days - weeks.

By onlly targeted part of the trend, i need to be more consistent in picking up positions and better at my entry. I think this may be my downfall at the moment.

I missed this trade on the EUR / AUD, this trade would have been top notch and is what my trading plan tragets.

A break out from a fib level with strong support confluence and a double bottow low higher close right at this level.

Fib Level + key support + price action breakout = high probability trade

70 ish pips bagged - mixed feelings

Netted 70 ish pips on USD / JPY , not too sure if I am happy with the trade though. I spotted potential for a breakout on 15 minute chart , corresponding with double bottom low higher close on a fib level on the dialy time frame and acted. A couple of hours later and nothing happend until the price broke out 70+ pips in less than 15 minutes.

I know the mantra of any trader is let your profits run and cut your losses, i cut out of this position when it hit a level of resistance with a fib level and daily pivot. My reasoning for exiting is I was not comfortable riding out the position and would like to wait for a consolidation on these levels. I am also mindful of not trying to pick the full trend but only 80%, will see how I go tommorow on this one.

Key actions for tommorow - Watch for support on this level and look for another entry. Daily chart suggests that this has longer to run, this is a result of the double bottom low higher close on the fib level.

When your stop loss is set too tight!

Support forming on a pre-established Fib level, wasnt such a high probability trade due to the fact there was not overwhelming price action, however this trade did go the distance.

However

Stop loss position was way too tight and my position was whipsawed ! If stop loss has been a little bit looser would have netter 80 - 100 pips ! Not a loss of 20 pips..

AUD / JPY

Made 2 trades on Friday on AUD / JPY, the first trade was stopped out with a loss of 43 pips whilist the second trade made 62 pips.

I got into the first trade a bit early and the position moved in the opposite direction fairly quickly triggering my stop loss. After my position was closed out I sat on the sidelines waiting for price confirmation to re-enter the trade going short again. A couple of hours later on the hourly chart a double top high lower close formed , on a tested key fib level. As a result i re-entered short my analysis proved to be correct and was able to real in 62 pips. I thought id better exit the position at the tested support and daily pivot, waiting for the line to be breached. As a result the support was breached and i was not at my computer to enter the trade.

After reviewing my trade i realised i had forgot to plot the daily pivot on the chart. When i did this it turned out that the pivot was acting as a key level of support and therefore my intial short entry was too premature ( as it was boucing off a key level of support and not going to conitune south straight away) . I later acknowledged this level and exited once the trade boucned hit this support again.

USD / JPY - 46 pips

Short USD / JPY @ 101.343 ($100,000)
Margin - $1,0000
Stop Loss - 101.521
Maximum Possible Loss - $178

Return - $460
Risk / Return - 2.58 : 1

After lackluster results from intra day trading I decided I would put faith in my judgements bite the bullet and go for a longer set up. After watching the breach of 3 succesive support levels, an emerging downward trend and two pin bars, I executed an entry position at 101.343 exiting at 100.787, giving me a 46 pip movement.

* Please note - I used invert colours on this chart as as a result the green pin bars are - movements and visa versa.